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Tariffs and cash flow: what the latest surveys and reporting show about small businesses under pressure

Updated October 19, 2026. Facts current as of that date.

A tariff is a cost that arrives early. An importer pays duty to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) when goods are entered, often weeks or months before those goods are sold. When rates rise, change several times in a year, or are later ruled unlawful and refunded, the effect on a small business is not just a higher cost. It is a question of when cash leaves and when, if ever, it comes back.

This article brings together what the most recent survey data and reporting say about that pressure. It covers price and margin data, customs bonds, short-term financing and refunds.

What small business owners report

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) published a dedicated Tariff and Trade Policy Report in 2026. It was based on an email survey of a random sample of 20,000 NFIB members, conducted from November 10 to December 18, 2025, which collected 782 responses. Its main findings:

  • 56 percent of respondents said tariffs had a negative impact on their business, including 16 percent who cited a significant negative impact. Eight percent reported a positive effect, and 35 percent had seen no impact.
  • Among owners affected, 78 percent reported higher prices for supplies or inventory, and 58 percent reported lower profits. Supply chain disruption was reported by 43 percent.
  • 63 percent had raised prices. No other response was used by more than 18 percent. Changing vendors and substituting products were each reported by 18 percent, eliminating products by 17 percent, and reducing employees by 16 percent.
  • 39 percent of respondents reported importing, with China the most common source. Among owners affected by tariffs, the China tariffs were the most widely cited (59 percent), followed by aluminum and steel (43 percent) and the universal 10 percent tariff (42 percent).

NFIB’s report notes that most small businesses do not import or export directly but still feel tariff effects through suppliers and prices.

NFIB’s monthly Small Business Economic Trends survey gives a more recent view. In its September 2026 report:

  • A seasonally adjusted net 31 percent of owners reported raising average selling prices, unchanged from August and well above the historical average of net 14 percent.
  • A net 31 percent plan to raise prices in the next three months, up 3 points, against a historical average of net 22 percent.
  • 20 percent named inflation as their single most important problem, up 4 points and the second most cited issue. The historical average is 7 percent.
  • The Small Business Optimism Index was 97.9, just below its 52-year average of 98.0. NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose 1 point to 90, against a historical average of 68.

Among the member comments NFIB published with the September report, a manufacturer in Missouri wrote: “Tariffs have had a major impact on our profit margins. It has taken us a year to get back on track from a profit margin standpoint after getting all of the price increases in place to counteract the increase in tariffs and the fallout from suppliers passing tariff increases on to us.”

What the Federal Reserve is hearing

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book collects reports from business contacts across its 12 Districts. It is anecdotal, not statistical, but it is a useful check on survey data.

The edition released September 2, 2026 said that “retail and manufacturing contacts continued to note tariff-related impacts in multiple Districts,” alongside price increases for energy, transportation and raw materials, “particularly metals and petrochemicals.”

The edition released October 14, 2026 said that contacts in multiple Districts “noted continued price pressure from other commodities, tariffs, and insurance,” on top of higher oil and diesel prices. It added: “Consumer-facing firms noted tighter profit margins as price-sensitive customers continue to resist price hikes.” Firms in several Districts “cited persistent uncertainty around energy and tariffs and expect that prices will increase further in the coming months.”

Taken together, the two sources describe the same squeeze. Input costs are still rising, and passing them on is getting harder.

Customs bonds: the cash requirement that grows with duties

Most commercial importers need a customs bond, which guarantees that duties, taxes and fees will be paid. Under CBP’s February 2024 public guide to bond amounts, the minimum continuous bond for basic importation is $50,000 or 10 percent of the total estimated duties, taxes and fees in the previous 12-month period, whichever is greater. CBP can also increase the required amount when bills are delinquent.

That formula ties the bond to duties paid. When tariffs rise, the bond requirement follows. CNBC reported on February 12, 2026, citing CBP data, that CBP identified 27,479 customs bond “insufficiencies” in fiscal 2025, with a combined value of almost $3.6 billion. CNBC described it as “the highest number of bond insufficiencies and the highest total value across insufficiencies ever recorded,” double the 2019 level. According to the same report:

  • Bond premiums are typically about 1 percent of the bond limit.
  • Importers cannot receive their freight if their bonds are not sufficiently funded.
  • Companies told CNBC that bond insufficiencies had added strain to their relationships with customs brokers.

Attorney Jennifer Diaz of Diaz Trade Law told CNBC: “Many companies take it for granted that a $50,000 bond should be able to cover you for a one-year period. But it might not.”

CBP’s bond formula looks back over the previous 12 months of duties, taxes and fees. CBP has not said publicly how refunded IEEPA duties count in that calculation. CBP has said it paused collection and enforcement actions for bills that include unpaid IEEPA duties. How this applies to a particular bond is a question for the surety or a licensed customs broker.

Borrowing to pay the duty bill

Some small importers have turned to expensive short-term financing. NPR reported on February 9, 2026 on Joshua Esnard, founder of The Cut Buddy, a small grooming-products company in North Carolina. According to NPR, the company’s tariff bills reached roughly $800,000 in 2025, more than five times what Esnard would normally budget. He covered the bills with three merchant cash advances totaling $950,000, and with fees his total debt topped $1.2 million.

Merchant cash advances are not loans in the traditional sense and are not priced with an annual interest rate. In the same report, John Arensmeyer, who heads the advocacy group Small Business Majority, told NPR that the comparable annual cost averages 94 percent, and that he has seen terms as high as 350 percent.

We are not aware of reliable data on how many importers have used this kind of financing to pay tariffs. NPR’s report is about one company’s experience, and it should be read that way.

Refunds: cash coming back, but not to everyone yet

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court held in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, and the IEEPA tariff actions were ended the same day. CBP opened its CAPE refund process in April, and refunds are paid with interest. In a sworn declaration in Freestyle World, Inc. v. United States, CBP said that as of October 2 about $126 billion in refunds, duties plus interest, had been certified and sent to the Treasury for disbursement. Another 20,362 refunds, worth about $1.1 billion, were being held because no ACH bank details had been provided.

The interest rate CBP pays on refunds follows the IRS quarterly overpayment rate. For the quarter that began October 1, 2026, that is 6 percent for corporations and 7 percent for non-corporations.

For small and medium importers, though, access has been uneven. The Court of International Trade (CIT) wrote on October 8 that some importers have not used CAPE, adding: “It is believed that these are overwhelmingly small importers who, because of the cost or effort involved in filing a CAPE declaration, or because they are unaware of the program, will never take advantage of CAPE.” The same opinion certified a class of IEEPA importers. Our article on IEEPA tariff refunds covers the process and deadlines in detail.

Business Insider reported in May 2026 on Megan Sweeney, CEO of Pacific International Bearing, a California company that sells ball bearings. Sweeney was seeking hundreds of thousands of dollars in tariff refunds but had spent several weeks trying to get into CBP’s ACE portal, which no one at the company had used in years. Business Insider described firms like hers as companies that “can’t tie up capital for long and don’t have the staff that bigger corporations do.” “For a small business, the process is much more difficult with limited time and resources,” Sweeney said.

Refunds also cover only what was collected under IEEPA. The 10 percent Section 122 surcharge applied from February 24 until it expired at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24, 2026. A divided CIT panel held it unlawful on May 7 and limited relief to the named plaintiffs (Slip Op. 26-47). The CIT refused to pause its ruling on May 20 (Slip Op. 26-53), but the Federal Circuit granted a stay pending appeal on June 11, so that relief is on hold while the appeal continues. We have found no refund process for other importers’ Section 122 payments. Section 232, Section 301 and Section 338 duties are not affected by either ruling.

What the numbers do not show

The data have limits that are worth stating plainly:

  • NFIB’s surveys sample its own members, most of whom do not import directly. They describe small businesses broadly, not importers specifically.
  • The Beige Book is a summary of anecdotal reports and is not designed to measure how widespread an effect is.
  • CNBC’s bond figures came from CBP data shared with the outlet. We have not found the same figures in a CBP publication.
  • We have not found public data that measures cash-flow strain specifically among small and medium importers.

Even with those limits, the pattern is consistent. Small businesses report higher input costs and lower profits, and many have raised prices. For importers, there is a further timing problem: duty is paid up front, bond requirements follow duty levels, and money that comes back as a refund takes time to arrive.

Sources

Costs, bonds and refunds are moving week to week. Subscribe free to the Importer Weekly briefing for a plain summary of what changed, with links to the official sources.

For decisions about your own entries, refunds or filings, talk to your licensed customs broker or trade attorney.

General information, not legal or customs advice.

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